Staying ahead of fraud: Top payment fraud trends for 2026 – 2027

Payment fraud is rapidly transforming, demanding new strategies and vigilance. In 2025, the landscape shifted dramatically, with social engineering and AI-driven scams leading the charge. Here are the five most significant trends shaping the future of financial crime.

1. Fraud becomes personal and persistent

From 2024 to 2025, the number of fraud cases involving social manipulation increased by 33 per cent. Social engineering as a method has not only grown in scale but has fundamentally shifted direction.

– To combat tomorrow’s fraud, understanding technology is no longer enough. As fraud now relies just as heavily on human judgement, we must equally understand human behaviour, says Gunnar Koren, Head of Financial Crime Prevention at Tieto Banktech.

A clear trend is that social manipulation is no longer a simple technical attack, but long-term influence on individuals. Where fraud used to consist of a single message, we now see multi‑step processes where trust is built over days and weeks. Fraudsters are increasingly using psychological tactics, taking time to learn about the victim, mirror their language and behaviour, and gradually influence them into making harmful decisions.

Read about how the employees at the Defence Centre support people who have been exposed to fraud.

2. AI-powered deception blurs reality

In parallel, AI‑driven manipulation is rapidly reshaping what people perceive as credible. Advanced AI tools capable of producing “deepfakes” – realistic voices, synthetic video, and highly personalised text – make it easier to construct scenarios that appear entirely authentic, even to fully digital generations.

As the technology advances and the digital world grows increasingly visual, it becomes harder for victims to question what they see or hear. The boundaries between real and fabricated become steadily more blurred.

– When AI can imitate both voices and faces, fraud becomes more convincing than ever before. This creates a fraud landscape that is increasingly difficult to navigate. Once again, understanding human behaviour becomes essential, says Koren.

3. Professionalisation of fake online shops

A third clear development is the professionalisation of fraudulent online shops. Scam websites have taken a significant leap forward: these are no longer simplistic fraud pages – they are professionally designed, commercially convincing, and closely integrated with digital marketing channels such as Facebook. Fraudsters can relaunch new and credible‑looking shopfronts within hours, adapting visuals and messaging with impressive agility.

These hyper-professional fake commercial environments are central to the evolving fraud economy, targeting online shoppers with convincing storefronts.

4. Cross-border and fragmented fraud operations

We also see a notable rise in cross‑border fraud operations, particularly when it comes to money movement. Transactions are spread across multiple countries, and both willing participants and manipulated, unaware individuals are used to break up the transaction flow into smaller, harder‑to‑trace components. Recruitment of “money mules” relies on psychological tactics – through financial pressure, social cues, and emotional manipulation.

– The fraud economy is becoming more professional and global, and therefore – unfortunately – much more adaptable. The harder it becomes to dismantle this infrastructure, the more crucial international cooperation between banks, authorities and technology players will be, Koren points out.

5. Trust as the new security currency

Finally, we observe a gradual weakening of trust in digital systems – particularly concerning data sharing and the use of AI in fraud prevention. Consumers are increasingly sceptical about how information is handled, while simultaneously expecting stronger protection in an ever more digital everyday life. This creates a fragile balance: security measures must be strengthened without people feeling monitored.

– Trust in digital systems is a foundation society cannot afford to lose – and fraudsters know this. Going forward, the focus must not only be on technology and the responsible use of data, but also on building and maintaining trust through transparency and dialogue, says Koren.

Why these trends matter

In summary, these five trends point to a future where fraud becomes:

• more human‑centred and behaviour‑driven
• more AI‑powered and technologically enhanced
• more cross‑border and globally organised
• increasingly influenced by people’s trust and sense of security

Each trend reinforces the others, creating a more adaptable, psychologically driven, and globally dispersed threat landscape.

To manage these trends, organisations will need earlier behavioural insight, stronger and smarter identity controls, and closer collaboration across both industries and national borders.

– The organisations that succeed in fraud prevention will be those able to view technology, behaviour, and collaboration as interconnected, Koren concludes.